Current situation of the coal industry: Consumption peak has passed. New situation of the coal industry: According to the report "China Energy...
Current situation of the coal industry: Consumption peak has passed. New situation of the coal industry: According to the report "China Energy Outlook 2030" released on March 1st, it is expected that the total energy consumption in 2020 and 2030 will reach 4.8 billion tons and 5.3 billion tons of standard coal respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 1.4% from 2016 to 2030. The per capita energy consumption in 2030 will reach 3.9 tons of standard coal, approaching the level of the UK in 2014.
In terms of energy supply, the growth rate of primary energy production has decreased as the growth rate of energy demand slows down. The total primary energy production in 2020 and 2030 will reach 4.1 billion and 4.3 billion tons of standard coal respectively. It will increase by 1.1% from 2016 to 2030. The structure of primary energy production is rapidly tilting towards non-fossil energy, with the proportion of coal significantly decreasing. The proportion of raw coal production in 2020 and 2030 will drop to 68.8% and 58.7% respectively, while the proportion of non-fossil energy will expand to 17.7% and 26.9% respectively. The energy dependence on foreign countries will be close to 20% in 2030.
Peak of coal consumption has passed.
The report states that factors such as the slowdown of economic growth, structural optimization and upgrading, the shift of growth momentum from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven, and the reaching or approaching of the upper limit of environmental carrying capacity will deeply change China's total energy demand and structure.
Under the large constraints of resources and environment and the pressure of carbon reduction, the energy consumption structure continues to improve. The proportion of coal consumption will decrease significantly, with the proportion of coal in 2020 and 2030 being 60% and 49% respectively. Clean energy will develop rapidly, with the proportion of non-fossil energy reaching 15% and 22% in 2020 and 2030 respectively. China's carbon emission path will undergo significant changes, and the peak of carbon emissions may be advanced to 2025, with a cumulative decrease of 54% in carbon emission intensity from 2016 to 2030.
Energy consumption intensity reflects the degree of economic growth's reliance on energy. It is expected that energy consumption intensity will decrease by nearly 50% from 2016 to 2030, and the energy consumption intensity in 2030 will be close to the current level of the United States, with a significant gap compared to low-energy-consuming European countries.
The report also predicts that the peak of coal consumption in China may have passed, and it is expected that the consumption will drop to around 3.6 billion tons by 2030, accounting for less than 50% of the total energy demand. Oil is expected to approach its peak between 2025 and 2030, with an oil consumption of about 660 million tons in 2030. Moreover, if alternative fuels develop rapidly, especially if breakthroughs are made in electric vehicle technology, the peak of oil demand may arrive earlier. For more information on the coal industry, please refer to the "2016-2021 China Coal Industry Market Operation and Development Trend Research Report" released by China Report Hall.
However, Zhou Dadi, the executive vice president of the China Energy Research Association, believes that the predictions in the report may be too high.
First, the prediction of the next stage's economic growth rate is highly uncertain. Zhou Dadi said that to maintain an medium-high economic growth rate is more difficult than before. During the super-high-speed period, investment was overly concentrated, causing massive overcapacity in almost all industries. In the situation where measures such as investment, exports, infrastructure, and real estate to stimulate the economy "almost" worked, whether the construction scale could maintain such a high level is unknown. Moreover, even if the economic growth rate is maintained, the growth content must undergo significant changes in the presence of a high capacity base.
Second, the consideration of the efficiency improvement brought about by the adjustment of the energy structure is insufficient. "The economic growth brought about by the optimization of energy is mainly in terms of quality rather than quantity, and has a huge impact on energy consumption. We underestimated this prediction," Zhou Dadi pointed out. In the past, supply capacity and investment capacity were insufficient, while now there is a supply surplus. "We have a feeling of finding solutions for some energy sources, so the prediction is likely to be high." Regarding natural gas, the report believes that its future development potential is huge. It is projected that China's natural gas demand will increase to 290 billion cubic meters by 2020 and reach 480 billion cubic meters by 2030, accounting for 12% of the total energy consumption.
The report also believes that the growth in electricity demand will slow down compared to earlier periods, but it will still be higher than the growth rate of total energy demand. The average annual growth rates from 2010 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2030 are 4.9% and 2.3% respectively, and the total consumption in 2020 and 2030 will reach approximately 6.8 trillion kilowatt-hours and 8.5 trillion kilowatt-hours respectively.
Wu Yin, the vice president of the China Energy Research Society, believes that the growth rate of China's electricity consumption from 2012 to 2014 was 5.9%, 8.9% and 3.7% respectively, which was much lower than the average annual growth rate of 13.1% and 11.0% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" and "11th Five-Year Plan". Therefore, the report's prediction of future electricity demand may be too high.
New energy will accelerate its development under the dual drive of systems and technologies.
In 2020, the installed capacity of new energy and renewable energy will reach approximately 860 million kilowatts, accounting for 42.9% of the total installed capacity, and the utilization volume will reach 720 million tons of standard coal, accounting for 15% of the total energy consumption; in 2030, the installed capacity will reach 1.44 billion kilowatts, accounting for 60%, and the utilization volume will increase to 1.17 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for 22% of the total energy consumption. It will contribute 90% of the energy consumption increase from 2020 to 2030.
In terms of hydropower, it is expected that the total installed capacity will reach about 380 million kilowatts by 2020, with a power generation of about 1.3 trillion kilowatt-hours; by 2030, the total capacity will reach 450 million kilowatts, with a power generation of approximately 1.45 trillion kilowatt-hours; due to the rapid development of other new energy installations, the installed capacity and power generation of hydropower in 2030 will both have a slight decrease compared to 2014, at 18.8% and 16.9% respectively. At the same time, the report points out that the development of hydropower utilization is constrained by environmental protection, and there are uncertainties.
Nuclear power will maintain a stable construction pace. It is projected that by 2020, the total installed capacity of operating nuclear power in China will reach 53 million kilowatts, with a power generation of approximately 380 billion kilowatt-hours, which is 2.2 times that of 2015, accounting for 5.6% of the total power generation; by 2030, the installed capacity of nuclear power in China will reach 136 million kilowatts, with a power generation of approximately 1,000 billion kilowatt-hours, increasing by 1.6 times from 2020 to 2030, and accounting for 11.8% of the total power generation.
However, due to the need to test the economic feasibility of third-generation technologies and the differences in understanding of the safety of inland nuclear power, inland nuclear power projects are difficult to be approved for construction. The "nuclear phobia" effect of nuclear power and nuclear facilities in China still has uncertainties.
In 2020, the development of wind power aims to achieve an installed capacity of 250 million kilowatts, accounting for 12.5% of the total installed capacity; in 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power will reach 450 million kilowatts, accounting for 18.8%, and the grid-connected electricity will be approximately 900 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 10.6% of the total power generation.
The report also points out that the construction of transmission channels is lagging behind, and "wind power curtailment" and power restrictions may restrict the further development of China's wind power. Moreover, China's wind power industry has not completely solved the problems of low average profit and high risks. Distributed wind power development also faces many obstacles and challenges: difficulties in implementing grid connection, limited consumption; cumbersome early procedures, insufficient resource assessment data; lack of unified access technical specifications.
Solar photovoltaic power generation will have an installed capacity of approximately 160 million kilowatts by 2020, increasing by about 5.4 times compared to 2014, accounting for 8% of the total installed capacity, and the power generation will be approximately 200 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 3% of the total power generation. By 2030, the installed capacity of solar energy will reach approximately 350 million kilowatts, accounting for 14.6% of the total installed capacity, and the power generation will reach 420 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for about 5% of the total power generation.
The report believes that distributed photovoltaic is an important direction for the future development of photovoltaic energy. However, "insufficient policy enthusiasm and market apathy", low enthusiasm among industrial and commercial owners for development, difficulties in coordinating rooftops and sites, obstacles in implementing grid connection procedures, and difficulties in financing still constrain its development.
Energy will accelerate its development